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Lumber - General Market
Chicago lumber futures reached a high of $534 per thousand feet mark on 2/1 and since has corrected to $402 on 2/17. Expect continued softness in futures over the next week or so, with a bottom likely being found in the next 2 weeks. Analysts at Raymond James expect a turnaround in the lumber market in the coming months as the busy homebuilding season heats up. That, combined with lean inventories means lumber prices could rally back above $500 per thousand board feet. Homebuilder sentiment showed signs of bottoming out, rising for the second consecutive month in February, mainly due to lower mortgage rates.
The stud markets are very soft right now and demand is almost non-existent. Mills are still living off order file but expect order files to catch up and prompt offerings to be available. Mills are trying to hold prices above $500 on 2x4 104-5/8 DF #2 and $620 on 2x6. Buyers don’t seem interested in purchasing 9’ studs within $40 of what mills are asking. Expect stud prices to come off over the next few weeks.
For SPF, the market was very quiet last week with slower sales reported pretty much everywhere. Even with all the curtailments and reductions in supply lately, demand has not been able to keep pace with supply. Some mills are trying to hold at higher prices near print, but others have started to discount prices back down to find business.
For SYP, mills are doing their best to build order file and get premiums on certain items. There are slim pickings on 2x4 and 2x12 as mills try to hold firm on their prices. Ground stock in 2x6 and 2x10 are available with some discounts on block orders.
Rebar (See Steel Price Chart Below)
Rebar is expected to remain rangebound in the near-term as scrap is currently forecast to move sideways in February, reducing support to rebar prices. Imports into the US could pressure domestic prices, even amid an expected uptick in demand supported by an appetite for domestically produced steel.